Challenges to food security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

The three UN agencies Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP) and The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are working intensively on managing the food security in Ukraine in the wake of the Russian invasion. According to a WFP report, at least 18 million people are affected by the Russian invasion. 12 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance and 1.7 million have been forced to leave their homes, and the numbers are now expected to have risen further. The invasion of Ukraine will also affect the global food supply and also the prices of raw materials and agricultural commodities, which was a challenge even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This poses major challenges for global food security.

The global supply of agricultural raw materials and rising food prices

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising food prices were a problem and this is now expected to worsen further. In February, the FAO's price index  was 20 percent higher than in the same period a year ago. In total, about 12 percent of all calories traded on the global market are produced in Russia and Ukraine. The share of the global market produced in the countries looks as follows according to an article from the international research institute IFPRI: 

Barley: Russia 14 percent and Ukraine 12.5 percent.

Corn: Russia 2.1 percent and Ukraine 15 percent.

Sunflower oil: Russia 23 percent and Ukraine 50 percent.

Wheat: Russia 24 percent and Ukraine 10 percent.

In mid-March, farmers need to prepare the soil for this year's growing season and harvest. The coming weeks are therefore very crucial for this year's harvest and the future price development according to the FAO. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the FAO, writes in a debate article that the price of wheat will rise already now because Ukraine has closed its ports until the war is over.

Low-income countries are affected

Higher food prices will mainly affect developing countries with high import needs. Torero writes in the article that high food prices can be a driving force for social unrest and mentioned Egypt as an example. North Africa and the Middle East import 50 percent of their entire grain needs from Ukraine and Russia. African countries imported $ 4 trillion worth of agricultural products from Russia by 2020, of which 90 percent of imports consisted of wheat and 6 percent of sunflower oil. Ukraine exported $ 2.9 trillion worth of agricultural products to African countries by 2020. Of that import, 48 percent consisted of wheat, 31 percent of corn and the remainder consisted of sunflower oil, barley and soybeans, according to an article published in The Conversation.

David Beasley, CEO of WFP, writes in a debate article in the Washington Post that rising food prices will affect WFP. More people will need food assistance and WFP's procurement costs will increase drastically.

FAO's analysis identifies risks and emphasises the importance of open value chains and trade routes

On March 11, the FAO published a lengthy analysis of the importance of Ukraine and Russia for the global agricultural market and risks surrounding the current conflict. FAO points to risks linked to trade, prices, logistics, production, humanitarian situation, energy, currency, debt and growth. The compilation contains production statistics but also figures on what the EU's energy supply looks like and its dependence on Russian energy.

Under policy recommendations, the FAO points to the need to keep value chains and trade routes open for food and inputs such as commercial fertilisers. Countries that depend on production from Ukraine and Russia need to find new suppliers. Furthermore, the need to take care of the needs of refugees is highlighted. The FAO also warns of export restrictions that could worsen the situation further.

Continued major challenges for the secure food supply in the world

Even before the crisis in Ukraine, there were about 20 "Hotspots of hunger" in the world where food supplies were expected to worsen. More than 43 million people are feared to be on the brink of starvation or starvation, according to a report by the FAO and WFP.  There is a very high risk that this figure will increase due to the conflict in Ukraine. The world is still far from goal 2 in Agenda 2030 - no hunger.